In caso di elezioni anticipate Fini otterrebbe un grosso successo.

Nell’ipotesi di un ritorno anticipato alle urne, secondo i dati del Barometro Politico dell’Istituto Demopolis, lo schieramento del Presidente della Camera otterrebbe oggi un consenso tra il 7% e l’8%. Una stima di massima destinata a modificarsi, anche radicalmente, in base alla collocazione ed alle effettive alleanze che Futuro e Libertà sceglierà nelle prossime settimane. 2 milioni e 700 mila voti, secondo Demopolis, sono il bacino odierno di Fini: uno spazio composito e trasversale, che incrocia segmenti di diverse aree politiche, non solo di Centro Destra. Significativa appare l’analisi sulla provenienza del consenso al nascente partito di Fini rispetto alle scelte compiute dagli elettori nelle Politiche del 2008. Il 63% di quanti oggi sceglierebbero FLI aveva in precedenza votato per il PDL (circa un milione e 700 mila), il 2% per la Lega di Bossi; il 5% aveva invece preferito l’UDC di Casini, il 4% Di Pietro, il 12% il Partito Democratico (circa 325 mila elettori). Il resto, stimabile intorno al 14% (in parte “vecchi” elettori di AN), non si era recato alle urne. In sintesi, dunque, quasi due terzi del consenso verrebbero sottratti agli alleati di Centro Destra; un segmento significativo recuperato dall’astensione, oltre un quinto tra quanti nel 2008 avevano scelto l’UDC o il Centro Sinistra. Secondo i dati del Barometro Politico dell’Istituto Nazionale di Ricerche Demopolis, il PDL di Berlusconi si posizionerebbe oggi al 29%, con la Lega di Bossi in ulteriore crescita al 13%. Il Partito Democratico otterrebbe il 26,5%, con l’Idv di Antonio Di Pietro al 6%. In lieve crescita, Sinistra, Ecologia e Libertà di Vendola (4,5%) e l’UDC di Casini (7%); FLI intorno al 7,5%. Tra lo 0,5% e il 2% gli altri partiti minori (MpA di Lombardo, API di Rutelli, Lista Bonino-Pannella, Socialisti, PRC con i Comunisti Italiani, la Destra, ecc). Una assoluta incognita, oggi difficilmente misurabile, potrebbe rivelarsi il Movimento Cinque Stelle di Grillo.

5 Responses to “In caso di elezioni anticipate Fini otterrebbe un grosso successo.”

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